Racing Model

Racing Value Finder

Aintree Festival Tracker • April 9-11, 2026

← Fri 10 Apr
16:05

Randox Topham Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race)

Aintree chase 1 21f Handicap 30 runners

Top-Pick Benchmark

Madara

Model win chance 18.5%

1pt Win

Pending

Horse OR Win% Place% SP Implied Value Verdict
Madara Top Pick Plan A 1.5pt
Top factors

sp_rank(+1.328), field_size(-0.312), avg_btn_last3(+0.099)

150 18.5% 47.4% 6.6 15.2% +3.3% Fair price
Indiana Jones
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.922), field_size(-0.169), class_drop_from_grade1(+0.067)

134 1.8% 5.7% 70.0 1.4% +0.4% Fair price
Hitman
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.829), field_size(-0.197), age_at_race(-0.072)

153 1.9% 6.0% 60.0 1.7% +0.2% Fair price
Eldorado Allen
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.890), field_size(-0.153), age_at_race(-0.084)

144 1.7% 5.3% 70.0 1.4% +0.2% Fair price
Jipcot
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.919), field_size(-0.191), or_current(+0.053)

134 1.7% 5.4% 65.0 1.5% +0.1% Fair price
Matata
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.855), field_size(-0.191), or_current(-0.063)

159 2.3% 7.1% 46.0 2.2% +0.1% Fair price
Theatre Native
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.866), field_size(-0.185), or_current(+0.053)

134 1.7% 5.4% 55.0 1.8% -0.1% Fair price
Will The Wise
Top factors

sp_rank(+0.540), field_size(-0.195), pct_trouble(-0.075)

143 8.5% 25.0% 11.5 8.7% -0.2% Fair price
Teddy Blue
Top factors

field_size(-0.157), combo_winpct(+0.070), trainer_winpct_30d(+0.060)

135 6.0% 18.3% 16.0 6.3% -0.2% Fair price
Soul Icon
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.893), field_size(-0.149), age_at_race(-0.076)

142 2.1% 6.5% 42.0 2.4% -0.3% Fair price
Peaky Boy
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.895), field_size(-0.193), avg_btn_last3(-0.063)

137 2.0% 6.3% 42.0 2.4% -0.4% Fair price
Ile Atlantique
Top factors

sp_rank(+0.824), field_size(-0.208), jockey_winpct_race_type(+0.111)

153 9.1% 26.5% 10.5 9.5% -0.4% Fair price
The King Of Prs
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.919), field_size(-0.196), or_current(+0.041)

134 1.5% 4.8% 50.0 2.0% -0.5% Fair price
Viroflay
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.914), field_size(-0.184), age_at_race(-0.094)

141 1.7% 5.3% 40.0 2.5% -0.8% Fair price
Croke Park
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.817), field_size(-0.197), class_drop_from_grade1(+0.054)

150 1.9% 6.1% 36.0 2.8% -0.9% Fair price
Excello
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.880), field_size(-0.142), combo_winpct(+0.063)

134 1.8% 5.8% 34.0 2.9% -1.1% Fair price
Addragoole
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.865), field_size(-0.196), win_rate_going_bucket(+0.056)

143 1.8% 5.6% 34.0 2.9% -1.2% Fair price
Prairie Wolf
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.781), field_size(-0.153), age_at_race(-0.082)

141 2.5% 7.7% 26.0 3.9% -1.4% Fair price
OMoore Park
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.902), field_size(-0.179), age_at_race(-0.046)

140 1.5% 4.9% 34.0 2.9% -1.4% Fair price
Pour Les Filles
Top factors

field_size(-0.154), or_current(+0.055), weight_carried(+0.049)

134 4.6% 14.2% 16.0 6.3% -1.6% Fair price
Booster Bob
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.604), field_size(-0.185), or_current(+0.071)

139 2.7% 8.6% 22.0 4.5% -1.8% Fair price
Bill Baxter
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.907), field_size(-0.158), age_at_race(-0.098)

136 1.9% 6.1% 26.0 3.9% -1.9% Fair price
Primoz
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.991), field_size(-0.166), jockey_winpct_race_type(+0.057)

134 1.7% 5.3% 26.0 3.9% -2.2% Fair price
Conflated
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.344), field_size(-0.136), or_current(+0.091)

140 3.1% 9.7% 19.0 5.3% -2.2% Fair price
Mahons Glory
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.882), field_size(-0.164), avg_btn_last3(+0.071)

139 1.8% 5.9% 24.0 4.2% -2.3% Fair price
Lisnamult Lad
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.654), field_size(-0.154), avg_btn_last3(+0.086)

138 2.2% 6.9% 22.0 4.5% -2.4% Fair price
Coming Up Easy
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.217), field_size(-0.197), avg_btn_last3(-0.068)

142 3.0% 9.3% 18.5 5.4% -2.4% Fair price
Boombawn
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.551), field_size(-0.158), or_current(+0.063)

146 2.4% 7.5% 20.0 5.0% -2.6% Fair price
Gentleman De Mee
Top factors

sp_rank(+0.153), field_size(-0.131), age_at_race(-0.078)

158 4.7% 14.5% 13.0 7.7% -3.0% Fair price
Il Est Francais
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.491), field_size(-0.207), or_current(-0.128)

160 2.2% 6.8% 19.0 5.3% -3.1% Opposable