Racing Model

Racing Value Finder

Aintree Festival Tracker • April 9-11, 2026

← Fri 10 Apr
16:05

Randox Topham Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race)

Aintree chase 1 21f Handicap 27 runners

Top-Pick Benchmark

Madara

Model win chance 21.3%

1pt Win

Pending

Horse OR Win% Place% SP Implied Value Verdict
Madara Top Pick Plan A 1.5pt
Top factors

sp_rank(+1.327), field_size(-0.311), jockey_winpct_race_type(+0.098)

150 21.3% 53.0% 6.0 16.7% +4.6% Fair price
Indiana Jones
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.922), field_size(-0.169), class_drop_from_grade1(+0.067)

134 2.0% 6.4% 320.0 0.3% +1.7% Fair price
Eldorado Allen
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.891), field_size(-0.156), age_at_race(-0.079)

144 1.8% 5.6% 150.0 0.7% +1.1% Fair price
Matata
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.858), field_size(-0.191), or_current(-0.064)

159 2.4% 7.7% 75.0 1.3% +1.1% Fair price
Conflated
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.836), field_size(-0.159), age_at_race(-0.067)

140 1.9% 6.3% 110.0 0.9% +1.0% Fair price
Pour Les Filles
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.938), field_size(-0.161), or_current(+0.072)

134 2.0% 6.5% 100.0 1.0% +1.0% Fair price
Hitman
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.829), field_size(-0.195), age_at_race(-0.069)

153 2.1% 6.8% 75.0 1.3% +0.8% Fair price
The King Of Prs
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.919), field_size(-0.197), or_current(+0.042)

134 1.7% 5.3% 85.0 1.2% +0.5% Fair price
Soul Icon
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.897), field_size(-0.157), age_at_race(-0.069)

142 2.4% 7.7% 50.0 2.0% +0.4% Fair price
Will The Wise
Top factors

sp_rank(+0.531), field_size(-0.197), pct_trouble(-0.081)

143 8.7% 25.9% 12.0 8.3% +0.4% Fair price
Peaky Boy
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.888), field_size(-0.199), avg_btn_last3(-0.059)

137 2.1% 6.9% 55.0 1.8% +0.3% Fair price
Bill Baxter
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.918), field_size(-0.158), age_at_race(-0.097)

136 2.2% 7.0% 44.0 2.3% -0.1% Fair price
Teddy Blue
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.864), field_size(-0.162), combo_winpct(+0.076)

135 2.9% 9.4% 32.0 3.1% -0.2% Fair price
Ile Atlantique
Top factors

sp_rank(+0.788), field_size(-0.203), jockey_winpct_race_type(+0.110)

153 9.7% 28.6% 9.8 10.2% -0.5% Fair price
Mahons Glory
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.881), field_size(-0.164), avg_btn_last3(+0.071)

139 2.1% 6.6% 36.0 2.8% -0.7% Fair price
Croke Park
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.799), field_size(-0.196), class_drop_from_grade1(+0.054)

150 2.1% 6.9% 34.0 2.9% -0.8% Fair price
Excello
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.868), field_size(-0.141), jockey_winpct_race_type(+0.079)

134 2.3% 7.3% 32.0 3.1% -0.9% Fair price
Primoz
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.679), field_size(-0.166), or_current(+0.076)

134 2.8% 8.8% 27.0 3.7% -0.9% Fair price
Booster Bob
Top factors

field_size(-0.192), days_since_last_win(-0.047), place_rate_overall(+0.042)

139 4.4% 13.9% 18.5 5.4% -1.0% Fair price
Viroflay
Top factors

field_size(-0.171), sp_rank(-0.154), age_at_race(-0.087)

141 4.1% 13.0% 19.0 5.3% -1.1% Fair price
OMoore Park
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.713), field_size(-0.177), or_current(+0.060)

140 2.1% 6.7% 30.0 3.3% -1.3% Fair price
Coming Up Easy
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.942), field_size(-0.202), avg_btn_last3(-0.075)

142 1.5% 4.9% 32.0 3.1% -1.6% Fair price
Lisnamult Lad
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.623), field_size(-0.149), avg_btn_last3(+0.086)

138 2.5% 8.1% 24.0 4.2% -1.6% Fair price
Boombawn
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.277), field_size(-0.143), age_at_race(-0.061)

146 2.9% 9.3% 21.0 4.8% -1.8% Fair price
Addragoole
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.628), field_size(-0.193), or_current(+0.053)

143 2.3% 7.4% 24.0 4.2% -1.9% Fair price
Il Est Francais
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.490), field_size(-0.204), or_current(-0.127)

160 2.4% 7.8% 22.0 4.5% -2.1% Fair price
Gentleman De Mee
Top factors

sp_rank(+0.160), field_size(-0.130), age_at_race(-0.074)

158 5.2% 16.1% 13.5 7.4% -2.2% Fair price