16:05
William Hill Aintree Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race)
Aintree hurdle 1 20f Grade 1 7 runners
3 places @ 1/4
Top-Pick Benchmark
Brighterdaysahead
Model win chance 41.3%
1pt Win
+1.62
Top pick won.
Strong-Value Overlay
1 bet in this race
Win
+1.62
E/W
+1.01
| Pos | Horse | OR | Win% | Place% | SP | Implied | Value | Verdict | Win P&L | E/W P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | Brighterdaysahead
Top Pick
Bet
Plan A 1.5pt
Top factorssp_rank(+1.632), field_size(+0.108), or_current(+0.085) | 159 | 41.3% | 88.0% | 2.6 | 31.8% | +9.6% | Strong value | +1.62 | +1.01 |
| — | Lucky Place Top factorssp_rank(-0.348), field_size(+0.124), combo_winpct(+0.066) | 151 | 4.4% | 19.5% | 55.0 | 1.8% | +2.5% | Fair price | ||
| 3rd | Alexei Top factorsfield_size(+0.150), rpr_best_last3(+0.093), is_grade1(-0.082) | 158 | 7.8% | 33.3% | 13.0 | 7.1% | +0.6% | Fair price | ||
| 4th | Golden Ace Top factorsfield_size(+0.094), is_grade1(-0.070), jockey_winpct_race_type(+0.064) | 150 | 5.9% | 26.0% | 12.0 | 8.3% | -2.4% | Fair price | ||
| 5th | Potters Charm Top factorssp_rank(-0.273), field_size(+0.135), is_grade1(-0.114) | 154 | 4.0% | 17.8% | 19.0 | 6.7% | -2.7% | Fair price | ||
| 2nd | The New Lion Top factorssp_rank(+0.810), field_size(+0.213), jockey_winpct_race_type(+0.135) | 160 | 27.8% | 78.1% | 3.3 | 31.3% | -3.5% | Opposable | ||
| 6th | El Fabiolo Top factorssp_rank(+0.333), age_at_race(-0.110), jockey_winpct_race_type(+0.097) | 155 | 8.8% | 37.3% | 5.0 | 16.7% | -7.8% | Opposable |