15:30
JCB Melling Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race)
Aintree chase 1 20f Grade 1 7 runners
Top-Pick Benchmark
Heart Wood
Model win chance 36.7%
1pt Win
Pending
Strong-Value Overlay
1 bet in this race
Win
+0.00
E/W
+0.00
| Horse | OR | Win% | Place% | SP | Implied | Value | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solness
Bet
Plan A 1.5pt
Top factorssp_rank(+0.305), field_size(+0.167), or_rpr_diff(+0.145) | 166 | 16.2% | 53.3% | 9.8 | 10.2% | +6.0% | Strong value |
| Saint Segal Top factorssp_rank(-0.388), field_size(+0.107), is_grade1(-0.094) | 155 | 4.7% | 18.1% | 55.0 | 1.8% | +2.8% | Fair price |
| JPR One Top factorssp_rank(-0.320), field_size(+0.129), or_current(-0.110) | 160 | 4.6% | 17.8% | 26.0 | 3.9% | +0.7% | Fair price |
| LEau du Sud Top factorsfield_size(+0.155), jockey_winpct_race_type(-0.071), rpr_best_last3(+0.070) | 163 | 6.8% | 25.9% | 15.0 | 6.7% | +0.2% | Fair price |
| Grey Dawning Top factorssp_rank(+0.482), field_size(+0.149), age_at_race(-0.109) | 165 | 15.5% | 51.6% | 5.4 | 18.5% | -3.0% | Opposable |
| Gidleigh Park Top factorssp_rank(+0.867), field_size(+0.165), days_since_last_win(-0.097) | 156 | 15.6% | 51.7% | 5.3 | 18.9% | -3.3% | Opposable |
| Heart Wood
Top Pick
Top factorssp_rank(+1.538), field_size(+0.168), rpr_current(+0.072) | 168 | 36.7% | 81.6% | 2.4 | 42.0% | -5.3% | Opposable |