15:30
JCB Melling Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race)
Aintree chase 1 20f Grade 1 7 runners
Top-Pick Benchmark
Heart Wood
Model win chance 36.2%
1pt Win
Pending
Strong-Value Overlay
1 bet in this race
Win
+0.00
E/W
+0.00
| Horse | OR | Win% | Place% | SP | Implied | Value | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solness
Bet
Plan A 2.0pt
Top factorssp_rank(+0.305), field_size(+0.167), or_rpr_diff(+0.145) | 166 | 16.3% | 53.7% | 10.5 | 9.5% | +6.8% | Strong value |
| Gidleigh Park Top factorssp_rank(+0.555), field_size(+0.169), is_grade1(-0.097) | 156 | 13.1% | 45.4% | 9.6 | 10.4% | +2.6% | Fair price |
| Saint Segal Top factorssp_rank(-0.395), or_current(-0.082), is_grade1(-0.082) | 155 | 4.0% | 15.7% | 34.0 | 2.9% | +1.1% | Fair price |
| LEau du Sud Top factorsfield_size(+0.155), jockey_winpct_race_type(-0.071), rpr_best_last3(+0.068) | 163 | 6.8% | 25.8% | 12.0 | 8.3% | -1.5% | Fair price |
| JPR One Top factorssp_rank(-0.320), field_size(+0.127), or_current(-0.115) | 160 | 4.7% | 18.3% | 16.0 | 6.3% | -1.6% | Fair price |
| Heart Wood
Top Pick
Top factorssp_rank(+1.549), field_size(+0.173), rpr_best_last3(+0.066) | 168 | 36.2% | 81.5% | 2.5 | 40.0% | -3.8% | Opposable |
| Grey Dawning Top factorssp_rank(+0.833), field_size(+0.197), age_at_race(-0.103) | 165 | 19.0% | 59.6% | 3.3 | 30.3% | -11.3% | Opposable |