Racing Model

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Aintree Festival Tracker • April 9-11, 2026

← Fri 10 Apr
14:55

ThatPrizeGuy Top Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race)

Aintree hurdle 1 16.5f Grade 1 6 runners

Top-Pick Benchmark

Sober Glory

Model win chance 42.1%

1pt Win

Pending

Strong-Value Overlay

1 bet in this race

Win

+0.00

E/W

+0.00

Horse OR Win% Place% SP Implied Value Verdict
Sinnatra Bet Plan A 1.5pt
Top factors

sp_rank(+0.446), field_size(+0.219), jockey_winpct_race_type(+0.105)

134 18.5% 62.8% 7.8 12.8% +5.7% Strong value
Starting Fifteen
Top factors

sp_rank(+0.158), field_size(+0.147), is_grade1(-0.113)

136 8.3% 33.7% 15.5 6.5% +1.8% Fair price
La Conquiere
Top factors

field_size(+0.208), is_grade1(-0.107), place_rate_overall(+0.048)

132 7.4% 30.3% 16.0 6.3% +1.1% Fair price
Storming George
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.207), field_size(+0.177), is_grade1(-0.077)

131 5.5% 23.0% 21.0 4.8% +0.7% Fair price
Baron Noir
Top factors

sp_rank(+0.914), field_size(+0.215), is_grade1(-0.104)

146 18.2% 62.3% 5.5 18.2% +0.0% Fair price
Sober Glory Top Pick
Top factors

sp_rank(+1.527), field_size(+0.235), trainer_winpct_race_type(+0.087)

153 42.1% 87.9% 1.6 61.7% -19.6% Opposable