Racing Model

Racing Value Finder

Aintree Festival Tracker • April 9-11, 2026

← Fri 10 Apr
17:15

Debenhams Handicap Hurdle (Conditional Jockeys' And Amateur Riders' Race) (GBB Race)

Aintree hurdle 2 16.5f Handicap 21 runners

Top-Pick Benchmark

Harry Lowes

Model win chance 19.3%

1pt Win

Pending

Horse OR Win% Place% SP Implied Value Verdict
Harry Lowes Top Pick Plan A 1.0pt
Top factors

sp_rank(+1.454), field_size(-0.329), trainer_winpct_course(+0.035)

124 19.3% 50.2% 5.9 17.0% +2.4% Fair price
Wandering Ego
Top factors

or_current(+0.148), sp_rank(-0.138), field_size(-0.129)

124 8.9% 26.9% 15.0 6.7% +2.3% Fair price
Pourquoi Pas Papa
Top factors

sp_rank(+0.445), field_size(-0.175), avg_btn_last3(+0.094)

129 11.9% 34.6% 10.0 10.0% +1.9% Fair price
Melon
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.280), or_current(+0.123), jockey_winpct_race_type(+0.112)

124 6.8% 21.0% 19.5 5.1% +1.7% Fair price
Ehteyat
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.973), field_size(-0.158), or_current(+0.079)

125 2.3% 7.4% 150.0 0.7% +1.6% Fair price
Charlus
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.904), field_size(-0.197), or_current(+0.058)

128 1.8% 5.8% 65.0 1.5% +0.3% Fair price
Afadil
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.907), field_size(-0.156), or_current(+0.073)

120 2.1% 6.7% 48.0 2.1% -0.0% Fair price
Captain Ryan Matt
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.918), field_size(-0.208), jockey_winpct_race_type(-0.044)

132 1.8% 5.7% 46.0 2.2% -0.4% Fair price
Laafi
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.925), field_size(-0.191), jockey_winpct_race_type(-0.053)

135 1.6% 5.2% 50.0 2.0% -0.4% Fair price
Litleangel Duseuil
Top factors

sp_rank(-1.018), field_size(-0.197), or_current(+0.077)

127 1.8% 5.8% 44.0 2.3% -0.5% Fair price
Hamsiyann
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.924), field_size(-0.167), or_current(+0.074)

123 1.7% 5.7% 44.0 2.3% -0.5% Fair price
Star Of Guiting
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.723), field_size(-0.131), or_current(+0.104)

121 2.4% 7.9% 30.0 3.3% -0.9% Fair price
Wild Bill Hickok
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.709), field_size(-0.172), or_current(+0.081)

135 2.4% 7.7% 30.0 3.3% -0.9% Fair price
No Ordinary Joe
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.907), field_size(-0.158), or_current(+0.054)

120 1.7% 5.5% 38.0 2.6% -0.9% Fair price
Gooloogong
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.913), field_size(-0.173), or_current(+0.061)

122 1.8% 5.9% 36.0 2.8% -1.0% Fair price
Static
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.612), field_size(-0.166), or_current(+0.077)

125 3.0% 9.8% 25.0 4.0% -1.0% Fair price
Last Kingdom
Top factors

sp_rank(-0.685), field_size(-0.160), or_current(+0.075)

129 2.3% 7.5% 29.0 3.5% -1.1% Fair price
The Mighty Celt
Top factors

sp_rank(+0.178), field_size(-0.174), avg_btn_last3(+0.054)

131 6.8% 21.0% 12.0 8.3% -1.5% Fair price
Wreckless Eric
Top factors

field_size(-0.156), sp_rank(+0.057), days_since_last_win(-0.046)

129 4.5% 14.4% 14.5 6.9% -2.4% Fair price
Rubber Ball
Top factors

field_size(-0.153), win_rate_course(+0.049), trainer_winpct_90d(-0.047)

128 4.3% 13.7% 14.5 6.9% -2.6% Fair price
Sherminator
Top factors

sp_rank(+0.828), field_size(-0.218), avg_btn_last3(+0.054)

125 10.7% 31.6% 6.0 16.7% -5.9% Opposable